[Estimation of prevalence of chronic Chagas disease in Brazilian municipalitiesEstimación de la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en los municipios brasileños]. / Estimativa de prevalência de doença de Chagas crônica nos municípios brasileiros.

Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of chronic Chagas disease (CCD) in Brazil: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Methods: A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to extract data on the prevalence of CCD in municipalities in Brazil in the 2010-2022 period: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Municipal-level CCD indicators available in health information systems were selected. Statistical modeling of the data extracted from the meta-analysis (based on data obtained from information systems) was applied to linear, generalized linear, and additive models. Results: The five most appropriate models were selected from a total of 549 models tested to obtain a consensus model (adjusted R2 = 54%). The most important predictor was self-reported CCD in the primary health care information system. Zero prevalence was estimated in 1 792 (32%) of Brazil's 5 570 municipalities; in the remaining 3 778 municipalities, average prevalence of the disease was estimated at 3.25% (± 2.9%). The number of carriers of CCD was estimated for the Brazilian population (~3.7 million), for women (~2.1 million) and for women of childbearing age (~590 000). The disease reproduction rate was calculated at 1.0336. All estimates refer to the 2015-2016 period. Conclusions: The estimated prevalence of CCD, especially among women of childbearing age, highlights the challenge of vertical transmission in Brazilian municipalities. Mathematical projections suggest that these estimates should be included in the national program for the elimination of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil. Métodos: Se realizó un metanálisis de la bibliografía para extraer datos sobre la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil, en los municipios de Brasil durante el período 2010-2022. Se seleccionaron los indicadores relacionados con esa enfermedad disponibles en los sistemas municipales de información de salud. La modelización estadística de los datos extraídos del metanálisis, en función de los obtenidos de los sistemas de información, se aplicó a modelos lineales, lineales generalizados y aditivos. Resultados: Se seleccionaron los cinco modelos más apropiados de un total de 549 modelos evaluados, para obtener un modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). El factor predictor más importante fue el registro de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica autodeclarada en el sistema de información de atención primaria de salud. De los 5570 municipios brasileños, en 1792 (32%) la prevalencia estimada fue nula y en los 3778 restantes la prevalencia media fue del 3,25% (± 2,9%). El número estimado de pacientes con enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil fue de ~3,7 millones, ~2,1 millones y ~590 000, respectivamente. La tasa calculada de reproducción de la enfermedad fue de 1,0336. Todas las estimaciones se refieren al período 2015-2016. Conclusiones: La prevalencia estimada de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, especialmente en las mujeres en edad fértil, pone de manifiesto el desafío que representa la transmisión vertical en los municipios brasileños. Estas estimaciones están en línea con los patrones de las proyecciones matemáticas, y sugieren la necesidad de incorporarlas al Pacto Nacional para la Eliminación de la Transmisión Vertical de la Enfermedad de Chagas.

Long COVID in a highly vaccinated but largely unexposed Australian population following the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave: a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of long COVID among Western Australian adults, a highly vaccinated population whose first major exposure to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was during the 2022 Omicron wave, and to assess its impact on health service use and return to work or study. STUDY DESIGN: Follow-up survey (completed online or by telephone). SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Adult Western Australians surveyed 90 days after positive SARS-CoV-2 test results (polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen testing) during 16 July - 3 August 2022 who had consented to follow-up contact for research purposes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of respondents with long COVID (ie, reporting new or ongoing symptoms or health problems, 90 days after positive SARS-CoV-2 test result); proportion with long COVID who sought health care for long COVID-related symptoms two to three months after infection; proportion who reported not fully returning to previous work or study because of long COVID-related symptoms. RESULTS: Of the 70 876 adults with reported SARS-CoV-2 infections, 24 024 consented to contact (33.9%); after exclusions, 22 744 people were invited to complete the survey, of whom 11 697 (51.4%) provided complete responses. Our case definition for long COVID was satisfied by 2130 respondents (18.2%). The risk of long COVID was greater for women (v men: adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-1.6) and for people aged 50-69 years (v 18-29 years: aRR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.9) or with pre-existing health conditions (aRR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), as well as for people who had received two or fewer COVID-19 vaccine doses (v four or more: aRR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8) or three doses (aRR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5). The symptoms most frequently reported by people with long COVID were fatigue (1504, 70.6%) and concentration difficulties (1267, 59.5%). In the month preceding the survey, 814 people had consulted general practitioners (38.2%) and 34 reported being hospitalised (1.6%) with long COVID. Of 1779 respondents with long COVID who had worked or studied before the infection, 318 reported reducing or discontinuing this activity (17.8%). CONCLUSION: Ninety days after infection with the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant, 18.2% of survey respondents reported symptoms consistent with long COVID, of whom 38.7% (7.1% of all survey respondents) sought health care for related health concerns two to three months after the acute infection.

Can we predict pathology without surgery? Weighing the added value of multiparametric MRI and whole prostate radiomics in integrative machine learning models.

OBJECTIVE: To test the ability of high-performance machine learning (ML) models employing clinical, radiological, and radiomic variables to improve non-invasive prediction of the pathological status of prostate cancer (PCa) in a large, single-institution cohort. METHODS: Patients who underwent multiparametric MRI and prostatectomy in our institution in 2015-2018 were considered; a total of 949 patients were included. Gradient-boosted decision tree models were separately trained using clinical features alone and in combination with radiological reporting and/or prostate radiomic features to predict pathological T, pathological N, ISUP score, and their change from preclinical assessment. Model behavior was analyzed in terms of performance, feature importance, Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values, and mean absolute error (MAE). The best model was compared against a naïve model mimicking clinical workflow. RESULTS: The model including all variables was the best performing (AUC values ranging from 0.73 to 0.96 for the six endpoints). Radiomic features brought a small yet measurable boost in performance, with the SHAP values indicating that their contribution can be critical to successful prediction of endpoints for individual patients. MAEs were lower for low-risk patients, suggesting that the models find them easier to classify. The best model outperformed (p ≤ 0.0001) clinical baseline, resulting in significantly fewer false negative predictions and overall was less prone to under-staging. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the potential benefit of integrative ML models for pathological status prediction in PCa. Additional studies regarding clinical integration of such models can provide valuable information for personalizing therapy offering a tool to improve non-invasive prediction of pathological status. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The best machine learning model was less prone to under-staging of the disease. The improved accuracy of our pathological prediction models could constitute an asset to the clinical workflow by providing clinicians with accurate pathological predictions prior to treatment. KEY POINTS: • Currently, the most common strategies for pre-surgical stratification of prostate cancer (PCa) patients have shown to have suboptimal performances. • The addition of radiological features to the clinical features gave a considerable boost in model performance. Our best model outperforms the naïve model, avoiding under-staging and resulting in a critical advantage in the clinic. •Machine learning models incorporating clinical, radiological, and radiomics features significantly improved accuracy of pathological prediction in prostate cancer, possibly constituting an asset to the clinical workflow.

Expanding access to fracture liaison services in Australia for people with minimal trauma fractures: a system dynamics modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To project how many minimal trauma fractures could be averted in Australia by expanding the number and changing the operational characteristics of fracture liaison services (FLS). STUDY DESIGN: System dynamics modelling. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: People aged 50 years or more who present to hospitals with minimal trauma fractures, Australia, 2020-31. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of all minimal trauma fractures and of hip fractures averted by increasing the FLS number (from 29 to 58 or 100), patient screening rate (from 30% to 60%), and capacity for accepting new patients (from 40 to 80 per service per month), and reducing the proportion of eligible patients who do not attend FLS (from 30% to 15%); cost per fracture averted. RESULTS: Our model projected a total of 2 441 320 minimal trauma fractures (258 680 hip fractures; 2 182 640 non-hip fractures) in people aged 50 years or older during 2020-31, including 1 211 646 second or later fractures. Increasing the FLS number to 100 averted a projected 5405 fractures (0.22%; $39 510 per fracture averted); doubling FLS capacity averted a projected 3674 fractures (0.15%; $35 835 per fracture averted). Our model projected that neither doubling the screening rate nor reducing by half the proportion of eligible patients who did not attend FLS alone would reduce the number of fractures. Increasing the FLS number to 100, the screening rate to 60%, and capacity to 80 new patients per service per month would together avert a projected 13 672 fractures (0.56%) at a cost of $42 828 per fracture averted. CONCLUSION: Our modelling indicates that increasing the number of hospital-based FLS and changing key operational characteristics would achieve only moderate reductions in the number of minimal trauma fractures among people aged 50 years or more, and the cost would be relatively high. Alternatives to specialist-led, hospital-based FLS should be explored.

Exploring the effect of the structural model of active aging on the self-assessment of quality of life among older people: A cross-sectional and analytical study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Although studies have examined the relationship between variables associated with active aging and quality of life (QoL), no studies have been identified to have investigated the effect of a structural model of active aging on QoL in a representative sample of older people in the community. OBJECTIVE: To measure the domains and facets of QoL in older people and identify the effect of the structural model of active aging on the self-assessment of QoL. DESIGN AND SETTING: This cross-sectional analytical study included 957 older people living in urban areas. Data were collected from households using validated instruments between March and June 2018. Descriptive, confirmatory factor, and structural equation modeling analyses were performed. RESULTS: Most older people self-rated their QoL as good (58.7%), and the highest mean scores were for the social relationships domain (70.12 ± 15.4) and the death and dying facet (75.43 ± 26.7). In contrast, the lowest mean scores were for the physical domains (64.41 ± 17.1) and social participation (67.20 ± 16.2) facets. It was found that active aging explained 50% of the variation in self-assessed QoL and directly and positively affected this outcome (λ = 0.70; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Active aging had a direct and positive effect on the self-assessment of QoL, indicating that the more individuals actively aged, the better the self-assessment of QoL.

Predicting the outcome of death by CALL Score in COVID-19 patients

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the CALL Score tool in predicting the death outcome in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: A total of 897 patients were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the association between characteristics of the CALL Score and the occurrence of death. The relationship between CALL Score risk classification and the occurrence of death was also examined. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to identify optimal cutoff points for the CALL Score and the outcome. RESULTS: The study revealed that age>60 years, DHL>500, and lymphocyte count ≤1000 emerged as independent predictors of death. Higher risk classifications of the CALL Score were associated with an increased likelihood of death. The optimal CALL Score cutoff point for predicting the death outcome was 9.5 (≥9.5), with a sensitivity of 70.4%, specificity of 80.3%, and accuracy of 80%. CONCLUSION: The CALL Score showed promising discriminatory ability for death outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Age, DHL level, and lymphocyte count were identified as independent predictors. Further validation and external evaluation are necessary to establish the robustness and generalizability of the CALL Score in diverse clinical settings.

An emergency room influx and trauma cases prediction in a Brazilian ophthalmological hospital by an ophthalmologist without code experience / Predição do influxo de atendimentos e casos de trauma em um serviço de urgência oftalmológico brasileiro realizado por um oftalmologista sem experiência em programação

ABSTRACT Purpose: The emergency medical service is a fundamental part of healthcare, albeit crowded emergency rooms lead to delayed and low-quality assistance in actual urgent cases. Machine-learning algorithms can provide a smart and effective estimation of emergency patients' volume, which was previously restricted to artificial intelligence (AI) experts in coding and computer science but is now feasible by anyone without any coding experience through auto machine learning. This study aimed to create a machine-learning model designed by an ophthalmologist without any coding experience using AutoML to predict the influx in the emergency department and trauma cases. Methods: A dataset of 356,611 visits at Hospital da Universidade Federal de São Paulo from January 01, 2014 to December 31, 2019 was included in the model training, which included visits/day and the international classification disease code. The training and prediction were made with the Amazon Forecast by 2 ophthalmologists with no prior coding experience. Results: The forecast period predicted a mean emergency patient volume of 216.27/day in p90, 180.75/day in p50, and 140.35/day in p10, and a mean of 7.42 trauma cases/ day in p90, 3.99/day in p50, and 0.56/day in p10. In January of 2020, there were a total of 6,604 patient visits and a mean of 206.37 patients/day, which is 13.5% less than the p50 prediction. This period involved a total of 199 trauma cases and a mean of 6.21 cases/day, which is 55.77% more traumas than that by the p50 prediction. Conclusions: The development of models was previously restricted to data scientists' experts in coding and computer science, but transfer learning autoML has enabled AI development by any person with no code experience mandatory. This study model showed a close value to the actual 2020 January visits, and the only factors that may have influenced the results between the two approaches are holidays and dataset size. This is the first study to apply AutoML in hospital visits forecast, showing a close prediction of the actual hospital influx.

RESUMO Objetivo: Esse estudo tem como objetivo criar um modelo de Machine Learning por um oftalmologista sem experiência em programação utilizando auto Machine Learning predizendo influxo de pacientes em serviço de emergência e casos de trauma. Métodos: Um dataset de 366,610 visitas em Hospital Universitário da Universidade Federal de São Paulo de 01 de janeiro de 2014 até 31 de dezembro de 2019 foi incluído no treinamento do modelo, incluindo visitas/dia e código internacional de doenças. O treinamento e predição foram realizados com o Amazon Forecast por dois oftalmologistas sem experiência com programação. Resultados: O período de previsão estimou um volume de 206,37 pacientes/dia em p90, 180,75 em p50, 140,35 em p10 e média de 7,42 casos de trauma/dia em p90, 3,99 em p50 e 0,56 em p10. Janeiro de 2020 teve um total de 6.604 pacientes e média de 206,37 pacientes/dia, 13,5% menos do que a predição em p50. O período teve um total de 199 casos de trauma e média de 6,21 casos/dia, 55,77% mais casos do que a predição em p50. Conclusão: O desenvolvimento de modelos era restrito a cientistas de dados com experiencia em programação, porém a transferência de ensino com a tecnologia de auto Machine Learning permite o desenvolvimento de algoritmos por qualquer pessoa sem experiencia em programação. Esse estudo mostra um modelo com valores preditos próximos ao que ocorreram em janeiro de 2020. Fatores que podem ter influenciados no resultado foram feriados e tamanho do banco de dados. Esse é o primeiro estudo que aplicada auto Machine Learning em predição de visitas hospitalares com resultados próximos aos que ocorreram.

Colorectal cancer recurrence and its impact on survival after curative surgery: An analysis based on multistate models.

AIM: To investigate the usefulness of multistate models (MSM) for determining colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence rate, to analyse the effect of different factors on tumour recurrence and death, and to assess the impact of recurrence for CRC prognosis. METHODS: Observational follow-up study of incident CRC cases disease-free after curative resection in 2006-2013 (n = 994). Recurrence and mortality were analyzed with MSM, as well as covariate effects on transition probabilities. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of recurrence at 60 months was 13.7%. Five years after surgery, 70.3% of patients were alive and recurrence-free, and 8.4% were alive after recurrence. Recurrence has a negative impact on prognosis, with 5-year CRC-related mortality increasing from 3.8% for those who are recurrence-free 1-year after surgery to 33.6% for those with a recurrence. Advanced stage increases recurrence risk (HR = 1.53) and CRC-related mortality after recurrence (HR = 2.35). CRC-related death was associated with age in recurrence-free patients, and with comorbidity after recurrence. As expected, age≥75 years was a risk factor for non-CRC-related death with (HR = 7.76) or without recurrence (HR = 4.26), while its effect on recurrence risk was not demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS: MSM allows detailed analysis of recurrence and mortality in CRC. Recurrence has a negative impact on prognosis. Advanced stage was a determining factor for recurrence and CRC-death after recurrence.

Identification of Myocardial Scarring Using Contrast-Free Cardiac MRI in Patients With Autoimmune Rheumatic Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiac MRI is the method of choice in revealing the presence of myocardial scarring, but its availability remains limited in clinical practice. PURPOSE: To assess myocardial scarring in patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (ARDs) using contrast-free cardiac MRI with a radiomics model. STUDY TYPE: Retrospective. POPULATION: One hundred ninety-two patients (mean age, 41 years ± 15, 62 men) with or without ARDs, grouped into a training set of 153 patients and a testing set of 39 patients. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3.0 T/ cine imaging with a balanced steady-state free precession sequence, T1 mapping with a modified Look-Locker inversion recovery sequence, and LGE imaging with a phase-sensitive inversion recovery gradient echo sequence. ASSESSMENT: LGE assessment was the reference standard for identifying myocardial scarring. Based on motion features extracted from cine images and tissue characterization features extracted from native T1 maps, a fully automated radiomics model with T1, cine MRI, or combined inputs was developed. STATISTICAL TESTS: Logistic regression model was used to detect myocardial scarring using contrast-free cardiac MRI parameters. Receiver operating characteristic curves were analyzed to assess the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in detecting myocardial scarring. Sensitivities of the models were further assessed in patients with various myocardial scarring proportions. Z-statistic and dice coefficient were assessed to compare the performance. P-values <0.05 were considered significant. RESULTS: The multivariable regression model exhibited an accuracy of 85.3%, a sensitivity of 93.5%, and a specificity of 50.0%. The radiomics model with T1 and cine MRI input exhibited an accuracy of 75.7%, a sensitivity of 60.9%, and a specificity of 85.5%. Moreover, the radiomics model showed a sensitivity of 90.9% among patients with >25% myocardial scarring. DATA CONCLUSIONS: The proposed radiomics model allowed for the identification of myocardial scarring similar to LGE, but on contrast-free cardiac MRI in patients with ARDs. EVIDENCE LEVEL: 3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 1.

Time Perception and Memory in Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease: A Preliminary Study.

Background and Purpose: Episodic memory is a system that receives and stores information about temporally dated episodes and their interrelations. Our study aimed to investigate the relevance of episodic memory to time perception, with a specific focus on simultaneity/order judgment. Methods: Experiment 1 employed the simultaneity judgment task to discern differences in time perception between patients with mild cognitive impairment or dementia, and age-matched normals. A mathematical analysis capable of estimating subjects' time processing was utilized to identify the sensory and decisional components of temporal order and simultaneity judgment. Experiment 2 examined how differences in temporal perception relate to performance in temporal order memory, in which time delays play a critical role. Results: The temporal decision windows for both temporal order and simultaneity judgments exhibited marginal differences between patients with episodic memory impairment, and their healthy counterparts (p = 0.15, t(22) = 1.34). These temporal decision windows may be linked to the temporal separation of events in episodic memory (Pearson's ρ = -0.53, p = 0.05). Conclusions: Based on our findings, the frequency of visual events accumulated and encoded in the working memory system in the patients' and normal group appears to be approximately (5.7 and 11.2) Hz, respectively. According to the internal clock model, a lower frequency of event pulses tends to result in underestimation of event duration, which phenomenon might be linked to the observed time distortions in patients with dementia.

Meta-research: How many diagnostic or prognostic models published in radiological journals are evaluated externally?

OBJECTIVES: Prognostic and diagnostic models must work in their intended clinical setting, proven via "external evaluation", preferably by authors uninvolved with model development. By systematic review, we determined the proportion of models published in high-impact radiological journals that are evaluated subsequently. METHODS: We hand-searched three radiological journals for multivariable diagnostic/prognostic models 2013-2015 inclusive, developed using regression. We assessed completeness of data presentation to allow subsequent external evaluation. We then searched literature to August 2022 to identify external evaluations of these index models. RESULTS: We identified 98 index studies (73 prognostic; 25 diagnostic) describing 145 models. Only 15 (15%) index studies presented an evaluation (two external). No model was updated. Only 20 (20%) studies presented a model equation. Just 7 (15%) studies developing Cox models presented a risk table, and just 4 (9%) presented the baseline hazard. Two (4%) studies developing non-Cox models presented the intercept. Just 20 (20%) articles presented a Kaplan-Meier curve of the final model. The 98 index studies attracted 4224 citations (including 559 self-citations), median 28 per study. We identified just six (6%) subsequent external evaluations of an index model, five of which were external evaluations by researchers uninvolved with model development, and from a different institution. CONCLUSIONS: Very few prognostic or diagnostic models published in radiological literature are evaluated externally, suggesting wasted research effort and resources. Authors' published models should present data sufficient to allow external evaluation by others. To achieve clinical utility, researchers should concentrate on model evaluation and updating rather than continual redevelopment. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The large majority of prognostic and diagnostic models published in high-impact radiological journals are never evaluated. It would be more efficient for researchers to evaluate existing models rather than practice continual redevelopment. KEY POINTS: • Systematic review of highly cited radiological literature identified few diagnostic or prognostic models that were evaluated subsequently by researchers uninvolved with the original model. • Published radiological models frequently omit important information necessary for others to perform an external evaluation: Only 20% of studies presented a model equation or nomogram. • A large proportion of research citing published models focuses on redevelopment and ignores evaluation and updating, which would be a more efficient use of research resources.

Uso da modelagem de equações estruturais na compreensão da incapacidade funcional de idosos com catarata autorreferida / Use of structural equation modeling to understand the functional disability of elderly people with self-reported cataract

Objetivo: Verificar as associações diretas e indiretas entre variáveis demográficas, econômicas, biopsicossociais e comportamentais com a incapacidade funcional de idosos com catarata autorreferida. Método: Estudo transversal entre 260 idosos com catarata autorreferida e residentes na área urbana de uma microrregião de saúde de Minas Gerais. A coleta dos dados foi realizada nos domicílios mediante a aplicação de instrumentos validados no Brasil. Procederam-se as análises descritiva e de trajetórias (p<0,05). Resultados: O declínio funcional ocorreu de forma hierárquica. O pior desempenho físico associou-se diretamente à maior incapacidade funcional para as atividades básicas (p= 0,003), instrumentais (p<0,001) e avançadas (p= 0,003) da vida diária. A inatividade física esteve associada diretamente à maior incapacidade funcional para as atividades instrumentais (p<0,001) e avançadas (p<0,001). A menor escolaridade (p= 0,020), o maior número de sintomas depressivos (p<0,001) e o menor escore de apoio social (p<0,001) associaram-se diretamente à maior incapacidade funcional para as atividades avançadas, tal como a maior idade (p= 0,001) para as instrumentais. Observaram-se associações indiretas, mediadas pelo pior desempenho físico, entre o sexo feminino e o maior número de morbidades com a incapacidade funcional para as três atividades da vida diária. Conclusão: Idosos com catarata autorreferida apresentaram comprometimento da capacidade funcional relacionado à idade mais avançada, à baixa escolaridade, ao pior desempenho físico, à inatividade física, à presença de sintomas depressivos e ao menor nível de apoio social.

Objective: To verify the direct and indirect associations between demographic, economic, biopsychosocial and behavioral variables with the functional disability of the elderly with self-reported cataract. Method: Cross-sectional study among 260 elderly people with self- reported cataract and residents in the urban area of ​​a health micro-region in Minas Gerais. Data collection was carried out in the households through the application of instruments validated in Brazil. Descriptive and trajectory analyzes were carried out (p<0.05). Results: The functional decline occurred in a hierarchical manner. The worst physical performance was directly associated with greater functional incapacity for basic (p= 0.003), instrumental (p<0.001) and advanced (p= 0.003) activities of daily living. Physical inactivity was directly associated with greater functional disability for instrumental (p<0.001) and advanced (p<0.001) activities. Lower schooling (p= 0.020), higher number of depressive symptoms (p<0.001) and lower social support score (p<0.001) were directly associated with greater functional incapacity for advanced activities, such as older age (p= 0.001) for the instruments. Indirect associations, mediated by worse physical performance, were observed between females and the highest number of morbidities with functional incapacity for the three activities of daily living. Conclusion: Elderly people with self-reported cataract showed impairment of functional capacity related to older age, low education, worse physical performance, physical inactivity, presence of depressive symptoms and lower level of social support.

Assessment of Total Cardiovascular Risk Using WHO/ISH Risk Prediction Chart Among Adults in Oman: A Nationally Representative Survey.

Objectives: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the major cause of morbidity and mortality globally and in Oman. Stratifying the population under different risk levels based on the total CVD risk approach using the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction chart would be more effective in primary prevention of CVD to prioritize and utilize valuable resources. Hence, this study aimed to assess the total 10-year CVD risk among adults in Oman and to ascertain the proportion of the population in need of pharmacotherapy. Methods: We used the data from the 2017 national community-based STEPS survey conducted among men and women in Oman aged 40-80 years. Ten-year total cardiovascular risk was measured using the WHO/ISH risk prediction chart for Eastern Mediterranean Sub-Region B. Independent t-test and Chi-square were used to test significance. Results: There were 2510 participants in the study. Their mean age was 51.5±10.1 years and 51.3% were male. The prevalence of low, moderate, and high CVD risk was 68.0%, 19.1%, and 12.9%, respectively, as benchmarked by the WHO/ISH chart. Immediate pharmacotherapy was needed by 30.3% of participants. Factors significantly associated with elevated CVD risk were the participant's age (p < 0.001), education level (p < 0.001), and employment status (p < 0.001). Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the population in Oman are at moderate or high CVD risk. Prompt pharmacological interventions are warranted for at least one in every five individuals in conjunction with lifestyle changes.

Epidemiology of C2 fractures and determinants of surgical management: analysis of a national registry.

Objective: Operative management of axis fractures (C2) usually depend on the stability and location of the break and individual patient characteristics. We sought to describe the epidemiology of C2 fractures and hypothesized that determinants for surgery would differ by fracture diagnosis. Methods: Patients with C2 fractures were identified from the US National Trauma Data Bank from January 1, 2017, to January 1, 2020. Patients were classified by C2 fracture diagnosis: odontoid type II, odontoid types I and III, and non-odontoid fracture (hangman's fracture or fractures through base of the axis). The primary comparison was C2 fracture surgery versus non-operative management. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent associations with surgery. Decision tree-based models were developed to identify determinants for surgery. Results: There were 38 080 patients; 42.7% had an odontoid type II fracture; 16.5% had an odontoid type I/III fracture; and 40.8% had a non-odontoid fracture. All examined patient demographics, clinical characteristics, outcomes, and interventions differed by C2 fracture diagnosis. Overall, 5292 (13.9%) were surgically managed (17.5% odontoid type II, 11.0% odontoid type I/III, and 11.2% non-odontoid; p<0.001). The following covariates increased odds of surgery for all three fracture diagnoses: younger age, treatment at a level I trauma center, fracture displacement, cervical ligament sprain, and cervical subluxation. Determinants of surgery differed by fracture diagnosis: for odontoid type II, age ≤80 years, a displaced fracture, and cervical ligament sprain were determinants; for odontoid type I/III, age ≤85 years, a displaced fracture, and cervical subluxation were determinants; for non-odontoid fractures, cervical subluxation and cervical ligament sprain were the strongest determinants for surgery, by hierarchy. Conclusions: This is the largest published study of C2 fractures and current surgical management in the USA. Odontoid fractures, regardless of type, had age and fracture displacement as the strongest determinants for surgical management, whereas associated injuries were determinants of surgery for non-odontoid fractures. Level of evidence: III.

Early Intravenous Beta-Blockade with Esmolol in Adults with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury (EBB-TBI): Protocol for a Phase 2a Intervention Design Study.

Traumatic brain injury is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Interventions that mitigate secondary brain injury have the potential to improve outcomes for patients and reduce the impact on communities and society. Increased circulating catecholamines are associated with worse outcomes and there are supportive animal data and indications in human studies of benefit from beta-blockade after severe traumatic brain injury. Here, we present the protocol for a dose-finding study using esmolol in adults commenced within 24 h of severe traumatic brain injury. Esmolol has practical advantages and theoretical benefits as a neuroprotective agent in this setting, but these must be balanced against the known risk of secondary injury from hypotension. The aim of this study is to determine a dose schedule for esmolol, using the continual reassessment method, that combines a clinically significant reduction in heart rate as a surrogate for catecholamine drive with maintenance of cerebral perfusion pressure. The maximum tolerated dosing schedule for esmolol can then be tested for patient benefit in subsequent randomized controlled trials.Trial registration ISRCTN, ISRCTN11038397, registered retrospectively 07/01/2021 https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN11038397.

Traumatic appendicitis is probably not real: an illustrative analysis of coincidental occurrences in nature.

There have been sporadic case reports describing 'traumatic appendicitis' (acute appendicitis occurring following injury) for almost a hundred years. Although this might seem to be an interesting and rare diagnosis for the journal reader, both appendicitis and trauma are very common, and their occurrence together may only give the illusion of causality. Indeed, such a diagnosis may not even exist. We provide an illustration of the statistical phenomenon of coincidental occurrences in nature using a computer simulation of traumatic appendicitis in the UK population. In our simulation, there are enough cases of traumatic appendicitis every 2 years to 3 years to account for the entire global literature on the topic. We suggest that unless there is a credible pathological process reported with demonstrable causality, further case reports of traumatic appendicitis need to have robust justification.

Improving access to mental health care: a system dynamics model of direct access to specialist care and accelerated specialist service capacity growth.

OBJECTIVE: To simulate the impact on population mental health indicators of allowing people to book some Medicare-subsidised sessions with psychologists and other mental health care professionals without a referral (direct access), and of increasing the annual growth rate in specialist mental health care capacity (consultations). DESIGN: System dynamics model, calibrated using historical time series data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, HealthStats NSW, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and the Australian Early Development Census. Parameter values that could not be derived from these sources were estimated by constrained optimisation. SETTING: New South Wales, 1 September 2021 - 1 September 2028. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Projected mental health-related emergency department presentations, hospitalisations following self-harm, and deaths by suicide, both overall and for people aged 15-24 years. RESULTS: Direct access (for 10-50% of people requiring specialist mental health care) would lead to increases in the numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations (0.33-1.68% of baseline), hospitalisations with self-harm (0.16-0.77%), and deaths by suicide (0.19-0.90%), as waiting times for consultations would increase, leading to disengagement and consequently to increases in adverse outcomes. Increasing the annual rate of growth of mental health service capacity (two- to fivefold) would reduce the frequency of all three outcomes; combining direct access to a proportion of services with increased growth in capacity achieved substantially greater gains than an increase in service capacity alone. A fivefold increase in the annual service growth rate would increase capacity by 71.6% by the end of 2028, compared with current projections; combined with direct access to 50% of mental health consultations, 26 616 emergency department presentations (3.6%), 1199 hospitalisations following self-harm (1.9%), and 158 deaths by suicide (2.1%) could be averted. CONCLUSION: The optimal combination of increased service capacity growth (fivefold) and direct access (50% of consultations) would have double the impact over seven years of accelerated capacity growth alone. Our model highlights the risks of implementing individual reforms without knowledge of their overall system effect.

Population-representative study reveals cardiovascular and metabolic disease biomarkers associated with misaligned sleep schedules.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Social jetlag manifests as a difference in sleep timing on workdays and free days. Social jetlag is often associated with shorter, lower-quality sleep, so it is unclear how much the chronic circadian misalignment contributes to observed negative health outcomes. We aimed to (1) investigate associations between social jetlag, chronotype (one of its determinants), and the levels of health markers, (2) describe factors associated with social jetlag, and (3) examine whether working from home can reduce social jetlag. METHODS: Adult respondents participated in a nationally representative longitudinal survey of Czech households (individuals in each wave: n2018/19/20 = 5132/1957/1533), which included Munich ChronoType Questionnaire to evaluate chronotype and social jetlag. A subset provided blood samples (n2019 = 1957) for detection of nine biomarkers and was surveyed in three successive years (social jetlag calculated for n2018/19/20 = 3930/1601/1237). Data were analyzed by nonparametric univariate tests and mixed effects multivariate regression with social jetlag, chronotype, sex, age, body-mass index, and reported diseases as predictors and biomarker levels as outcomes. RESULTS: Higher social jetlag (≥0.65 h) was significantly associated with increased levels of total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, particularly in participants older than 50 years (Mann-Whitney, men: pCHL = 0.0005, pLDL = 0.0009; women: pCHL = 0.0079, pLDL = 0.0068). Extreme chronotypes were associated with cardiovascular disease risk markers regardless of social jetlag (Kruskal-Wallis, p < 0.0001). Commuting to work and time stress were identified as important contributors to social jetlag. Individual longitudinal data showed that working from home decreased social jetlag and prolonged sleep. CONCLUSIONS: We report significant associations between sleep phase preference, social jetlag, and cardio-metabolic biomarkers.

Quality of life in older adults according to race/color: a cross-sectional study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Increased longevity is accompanied by new social and health demands, such as the race/color social construct, indicating the need to identify the specific needs of older adults to maintain and improve their quality of life. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to verify the direct and indirect associations of demographic, economic, and biopsychosocial characteristics with self-assessed quality of life in older adults according to race/color. DESIGN AND SETTING: This cross-sectional study included 941 older adults living in the urban area of a health microregion in Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: Older adults were divided into three groups: white (n = 585), brown (n = 238), and black (n = 102) race/color. Descriptive and trajectory analyses were performed (P < 0.05). RESULTS: Among the three groups, worse self-assessed quality of life was directly associated with lower social support scores and greater numbers of depressive symptoms. Worse self-assessed quality of life was also directly associated with a higher number of functional disabilities in basic activities of daily living and the absence of a partner among older adults of brown and black race/color. Lower monthly income and higher numbers of morbidities and compromised components of the frailty phenotype were observed among participants of white race/color, as well as lower levels of education in the brown race/color group. CONCLUSION: Factors associated with poorer self-assessed quality of life among older adults in the study community differed according to race/color.